Poisson football score calculator

Home expected goals Away expected goals Home goals for score Away goals for score Over or under line

Example result

Expected goals of 1.50 and 1.00 produce about 12.31% for a 1-1 score.

What this calculator answers

Use expected goals for each team to estimate the probability of a selected correct score and the chance of an over or under total. It treats team goal counts as independent Poisson variables.

Formula and worked example

Formula: P(k goals) = e to the power of minus lambda multiplied by lambda to the power k divided by k factorial. Correct score probability multiplies home and away goal probabilities.

With home expected goals 1.50 and away expected goals 1.00, home scoring one is 33.47 percent and away scoring one is 36.79 percent. The 1-1 score probability is about 12.31 percent.

Checks before using the result

• Entering recent goals scored as if they are an expected-goals estimate.
• Assuming team goal counts are fully independent in every match.
• Rounding small probabilities too early.

When the calculation does not apply

It is a simplified statistical model, not a match forecast. It does not account for team news, red cards, style changes, tactical interaction or price margin.

Keep the number in context

A calculator makes the arithmetic visible, but it does not decide whether a price fits your budget or information. Write down the stake before placing anything, check the market rules, and keep essential money separate. The result is a planning figure, not a prediction of what will happen.

For another view, visit the calculator hub, compare the Free bet SNR and Accumulator, or read the football hub. These tools use the same price conventions, so you can check a number from more than one angle.

Reading a rounded result

Displayed money amounts are rounded to two decimal places, while a real settlement can apply its own rounding sequence. Keep the original inputs beside the result if you need to repeat the calculation later.

If an input is unclear, pause and find the stated market term rather than guessing. A useful check is to change one input by a small amount and see whether the result moves in the direction you expect.

That does not validate the market, but it can reveal a reversed sign, an incorrect price format or a duplicated stake. Use the final figure as an aid to understanding the arithmetic, not as a reason to ignore a limit you set in advance.